India’s export landscape could undergo a significant transformation over the next five years, with startups, manufacturing and artificial intelligence emerging as key drivers of the country’s global trade ambitions.
Speaking about India’s export outlook, the investor highlighted how the country has historically relied heavily on high-value services such as IT and engineering services. However, the rapid expansion of goods manufacturing is beginning to change that equation, with global companies increasingly setting up production in India.
The growth of electronics manufacturing is one example of this shift. Companies such as Apple and Samsung are expanding their manufacturing footprint in the country, helping boost India’s goods exports and strengthening domestic production capabilities.
According to the investor, India’s net trade deficit could narrow substantially by 2029-30 as the country simultaneously increases exports and manufactures more products domestically. The combination of stronger goods exports, continued growth in services and greater domestic production could potentially bring net exports and imports closer to balance.
Such a shift could also have implications for the Indian rupee. A more balanced external account could reduce pressure on the currency and strengthen India’s position in global financial markets. The investor argued that sustained policy stability will be critical to achieving this outcome.
For startups, the opportunity extends beyond traditional software exports. Indian companies are increasingly developing AI and other technology products for global markets, while startups are also becoming part of a broader manufacturing ecosystem.
The key, however, will be whether India can build lasting capabilities rather than simply replace imports. Developing technology, manufacturing expertise and globally competitive companies within the country could create a more sustainable export engine.
The outlook is also closely linked to India’s ability to attract global capital. The growth of GIFT City has made it easier for international investors to access Indian opportunities, while policy incentives and a relatively stable regulatory environment have improved the attractiveness of investing in India.
The investor also pointed to India’s trade agreements and growing integration with global markets as important long-term developments. Large-scale trade and investment commitments, he said, can create opportunities that individual venture capital investors cannot generate on their own.
Meanwhile, strong IPO activity has provided another boost to investor sentiment. Global investors have generated significant returns from India’s public and private markets, while exits through initial public offerings have contributed to stronger private-equity and venture-capital performance.
Ultimately, the next phase of India’s export story may depend on the convergence of three forces: startups developing globally competitive technologies, manufacturers expanding production in India, and AI opening new markets for Indian companies.
If these trends are supported by consistent policy and continued integration with the global economy, India could move closer to becoming not just a major services exporter, but a broader global hub for products, technology and innovation.